Vulnerability forecast scenarios dataset of the water resources, agriculture, and ecosystem of the Heihe River Basin (Version 1.0) (2010-2050)

By applying Supply-demand Balance Analysis, the water resource supply and demand of the whole river basin and each county or district were calculated, based on which the vulnerability of the water resources system of the basin was evaluated. The IPAT equation was used to set a future water resource demand scenario, setting variables such as future population growth rate, economic growth rate, and unit GDP water consumption to establish the scenario. By taking 2005 as the base year and using assorted forecasting data of population size and economic scale, the future water demand scenarios of various counties and cities from 2010 to 2050 were forecast. By applying the basic structure of the HBV conceptual hydrological model of the Swedish Hydrometeorological Institute, a model of the variation tendency of the basin under climate change was designed. The glacial melting scenario was used as the model input to construct the runoff scenario under climate change. According to the national regulations of the water resources allocation of the basin, a water distribution plan was set up to calculate the water supply comprehensively. Considering of the supply and demand situation, the water resource system vulnerability was evaluated by the water shortage rate. By calculating the (grain production) land pressure index of the major counties and cities in the basin, the balance of supply and demand of land resources under the climate change, glacial melt and population growth scenarios was analyzed, and the vulnerability of the agricultural system was evaluated. The Miami formula and HANPP model were used to calculate the human appropriation of net primary biomass and primary biomass in the major counties and cities for the future, and the vulnerability of ecosystems from the perspective of supply and demand balance was assessed.

The dataset contains all individual glacial storage (unit: km3) over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in 1970s and 2000s. It is sourced from the resultant data of the paper entitled "Consolidating the Randolph Glacier Inventory and the Glacier Inventory of China over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Investigating Glacier Changes Since the mid-20th Century". The first draft of this paper has been completed and is planned to be submitted to Earth System Science Data journal. The baseline glacier inventories in 1970s and 2000s are the Randolph Glacier Inventory 4.0 dataset, and the Glacier Inventory of China, respectively. Based on the individual glacial boundaries extracted from the above-mentioned two datasets, the grid-based bedrock elevation dataset (https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/global/global.html, DOI: 10.7289/v5c8276m), and the glacier surface elevation obtained by a slope-dependent method, the individual glacier volumes in 1970s and 2000s are then calculated. In addition, the calculated results of individual glacier volumes in this study have been compared and verified with the existent results of several glacier volumes, relevant remote sensing datasets, and the global glacier thickness dataset based on the average of multiple glacier model outputs (https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/handle/20.500.11850/315707, doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000315707), and the errors in the calculations have also been quantified. The established dataset in this study is expected to provide the data basis for the future regional water resources estimation and glacier ablation-involved researches. Moreover, the acquisition of the data also provides a new idea for the future glacier storage estimation.

The data set contains all single glacial reserves (in KM3) in the Tibetan Plateau of 1970s and 2000s. This data set comes from the result data of the paper entitled "consolidating the Randolph glacier inventory and the glacier inventory of China over the Qinghai titanium plate and investigating glacier changes since the mid-20th century". The first draft of this paper has been completed and is planned to be submitted to earth system science data. The 1970s basic glacier catalog data in the dataset is extracted from Randolph glacier Inventory data set, 2000s basic glacial catalogue is from China's second glacial catalogue data set. Based on the glacial boundary extracted from the two data sets and combined with the grid based bedrock elevation data set (https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/global/global.html, DOI: 10.7289/v5c8276m) and the glacial table obtained by a slope dependent method Based on the surface elevation data set, the single glacier reserves in the two catalogues are calculated. In addition, the calculation results of single glacier reserves obtained in this study have been compared and verified with the calculation results of partial glacier reserves, relevant remote sensing data sets, and the global glacier thickness data set based on the average of multiple glacier model sets in multiple directions, and the errors in the calculation results have also been quantified. The establishment of the data set is expected to provide the data basis for the future regional water resources estimation and glacier ablation research, and the acquisition of the data also provides a new idea for the future glacier reserves research.