The data set includes: population and GDP data of the arctic (1990-2015) and county-level population and GDP data of the third pole region (gansu, qinghai and Tibet) (1970-2016). Socio-economic statistical attributes include: population (ten thousand), GDP (ten thousand yuan), total industrial and agricultural output (ten thousand yuan), total agricultural output (ten thousand yuan), and total industrial output (ten thousand yuan). The arctic population data are mainly derived from the world populationProspects: 2017 revision by the Department of economic and social affairs, which divides the total population by region and country. The data of the third pole mainly refer to the statistical yearbook of gansu province, qinghai province and Tibet autonomous region.County records of gansu, qinghai and Tibet autonomous regions.
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, National Bureau of Statistics, Qinghai Provincial Bureau of Statistics
Taking 2005 as the base year, the future population scenario was predicted by adopting the Logistic model of population. It not only can better describe the change pattern of population and biomass but is also widely applied in the economic field. The urbanization rate was predicted by using the urbanization Logistic model. Based on the existing urbanization horizontal sequence value, the prediction model was established by acquiring the parameters in the parametric equation by nonlinear regression. The urban population was calculated by multiplying the predicted population by the urbanization rate. The data adopted the non-agricultural population. The Logistic model was used to predict the future gross national product of each county (or city), and then, according to the economic development level of each county (or city) in each period (in terms of GDP per capita),the corresponding industrial structure scenarios in each period were set, and the output value of each industry was predicted. The trend of changes in industrial structure in China and the research area lagged behind the growth of GDP and was therefore adjusted according to the need of the future industrial structure scenarios of the research area.
ZHONG Fanglei
Taking 2005 as the base year, the future population scenario was predicted by adopting the logistic model of population. This model not only effectively describes the pattern of changes in population and biomass but is also widely applied in the field of economics. The urbanization rate was predicted using the urbanization logistic model. Based on the observed horizontal pattern of urbanization, a predictive model was established by determining the parameters in the parametric equation by applying nonlinear regression. The urban population was calculated by multiplying the predicted population by the urbanization rate. The data represent the non-agricultural population. The logistic model was used to predict the future gross domestic product of each county (or city), and then the economic development level of each county (or city) in each period (in terms of GDP per capita). The corresponding industrial structure scenarios in each period were set, and the output value of each industry was predicted. The trend of industrial structure changes in China and the research area lagged behind the growth in GDP, so the changes were adjusted according to the need for future industrial structure scenarios in the research area.
YANG Linsheng, ZHONG Fanglei
By applying supply-demand balance analysis, the water resource supply and demand of the whole river basin and each county or district were calculated, and the results were used to assess the vulnerability of the water resources system in the basin. The IPAT equation was used to establish a future water resource demand scenario, which involved setting various variables, such as the future population growth rate, economic growth rate, and water consumption per unit GDP. By taking 2005 as the base year and using assorted forecasting data of population size and economic scale, the future water demand scenarios of various counties and cities from 2010 to 2050 were predicted. By applying the basic structure of the HBV conceptual hydrological model of the Swedish Hydro-meteorological Institute, a model of the variation trends of the basin under a changing climate was designed. The glacial melting scenario was used as the model input to construct the runoff scenario in response to climate change. According to the national regulations of the water resource allocation in the basin, a water distribution plan was set up to calculate the water supply comprehensively. Considering the supply and demand situation, the water resource system vulnerability was evaluated by the water shortage rate. By calculating the grain production-related land pressure index of the major counties and cities in the basin, the balance of supply and demand of land resources in scenarios of climate change, glacial melting and population growth was analysed, and the vulnerability of the agricultural system was evaluated. The Miami formula and HANPP model were used to calculate the human appropriation of net primary biomass and primary biomass in the major counties and cities in the future, and the vulnerability of ecosystems from the perspective of supply and demand balance was assessed.
YANG Linsheng, ZHONG Fanglei
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