Taking 2005 as the base year, the future population scenario prediction adopted the Logistic model of population, and it not only can better describe the change pattern of population and biomass but is also widely applied in the economic field. The urbanization rate was predicted using the urbanization Logistic model. Based on the existing urbanization horizontal sequence value, the prediction model was established by acquiring the parameters in the parametric equation applying nonlinear regression. The urban population was calculated by multiplying the predicted population by the urbanization rate. The Logistic model was used to predict the future gross national product of each county (or city), and then, according to the economic development level of each county (or city) in each period (in terms of real GDP per capita),the corresponding industrial structure scenarios in each period were set, and each industry’s output value was predicted. The trend of changes in industrial structure in China and the research area lagged behind the growth of GDP, and, therefore, it was adjusted according to the need of the future industrial structure scenarios of the research area.
ZHONG Fanglei, YANG Linsheng
The population data of Zhangye City from 2001 to 2012 include: annual population density and natural population growth rate, Data source: Statistical Bureau of Zhangye City. Statistical yearbook of Zhangye City. 2001-2012, Department of water resources of Gansu Province. Bulletin of water resources of Gansu Province. 2001-2012. Water Affairs Bureau of Zhangye City. Comprehensive annual report of water resources of Zhangye City, 1999-2011
ZHANG Dawei
In 2000, the population grid data of Heihe River Basin was generated based on 1:100000 land use data and population statistics data of each county in 2000. Using principal component analysis and factor analysis, four factors are extracted from 11 regionalization indexes, and the Heihe River Basin is divided into four population distribution characteristic regions by using factor scores for hierarchical clustering. The linear regression model between rural residential land, cultivated land area and rural population is established based on the population statistical data of each county in 2000. The total population of each district and county is controlled. The population coefficient is adjusted according to the principle of different population distribution characteristics. The cultivated land population distribution coefficient is modified in the middle green continent, and the grassland population distribution is increased in the upstream mountainous area and the downstream desert oasis area Coefficient. The spatial distribution of urban population density in river basin is simulated by using the exponential model. Based on the above methods, the population spatial distribution results of 25m grid in Heihe River Basin and the data of 1km grid on scale are finally obtained. At the township level, the accuracy of the results of population spatialization is verified, and compared with the population data of Heihe River Basin estimated by the existing databases (GPW 1995, UNEP / grid1995, landscan 2002 and cn2000pop). The results show that the methods and models used in this study can obtain more accurate spatial distribution data of population in the basin.
WANG Xuemei, MA Mingguo
This set of data mainly includes the demographic data of 12 counties in 6 prefecture-level cities of Qinghai, Gansu and Inner Mongolia in Heihe River Basin, covering the time period of 2000-2009. The data source is the local statistical yearbook, which mainly includes: Statistical Bureau of Suzhou District. Statistical Yearbook of Suzhou. 2004-2009; Yumen Statistical Bureau. Yumen Statistical Yearbook. 2000-2008; Jinta County Statistical Bureau. Jinta County Statistical Yearbook. 2004-2009; Gaotai Statistical Bureau. Gaotai Statistical Yearbook. 2000-2007; Shandan County Statistical Bureau. Shandan County Statistical Yearbook. 2000-2009; Sunan Yugur Statistical Bureau. Statistical Yearbook of Sunan Yugur Autonomous County. 2004-2009; Minle County Statistical Bureau. Minle County Statistical Yearbook. 2004-2009; Shandan County Statistical Bureau. Shandan County Statistical Yearbook. 2000-2009; Linze County Statistical Bureau. Linze County Statistical Yearbook. 2000-2009; Ejin Banner Statistical Bureau. Ejin Banner Statistical Yearbook. 1990-2005; Qilian County Statistical Bureau. Qilian County National Economic Statistics. 2004-2009; Part of the data of Zhangye City comes from the basic social and economic situation of townships of Zhangye City in 2005. Data of Jiayuguan City is derived from the CNKI statistical data database of China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and only contains some county-level data. Data Content Description: The data mainly includes three population indicators of 12 counties in the basin, including Ganzhou District, Gaotai County, Shandan County, Minle County, Linze County, Sunan Yugur Autonomous County, Jinta County, Sunzhou District and Yumen City, Jiayuguan City, Qilian County, and Ejin Banner. The population indicators are permanent population, agricultural population and non-agricultural population at the end of the year. It is divided into two levels: county level and township level. The statistics currently available are: County level: Ejina Banner: 2006-2009: resident population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of each year Ganzhou District: 2009: agricultural population, non-agricultural population of the year; Gaotai County: 2009: agricultural population, non-agricultural population of the year; Sunan: 2000-2009: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of each year; Minle County: 2009: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; Linze: 2009: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; Yumen City: 2000-2005: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of each year; Township level: Ejin Banner: 2000-2005: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; Ganzhou District: 2000-2008: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; 2009: resident population at the end of the year; Gaotai County: 2000-2004, 2006, 2007: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; 2009: resident population at the end of the year; Shandan County: 2000-2007: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; 2009: resident population at the end of the year; Minle County: 2000-2008: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; Jinta County: 2004-2009: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; Yumen City: 2006-2008: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; Suzhou District 2004-2009: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; Qilian County: 2004-2009: permanent population, agricultural population, non-agricultural population at the end of the year; Permanent population at the end of the year, agricultural population, non-agricultural population County level township level county level township level county level township level Ejin Banner:2006-2009 2000-2005 2006-2009 2000-2005 2006-2009 2000-2005 Ganzhou District 2000-2009 2009 2000-2008 2009 2000-2008 Gaotai County 2000-2004、 2006、2007、2009 2009 2000-2004、 2006、2007 2009 2000-2004、 2006、2007 Shandan County 2000-2007、2009 2000-2007 2000-2007 Sunan County 2000-2009 2000-2009 2000-2009 Minle County 2009 2000-2008 2009 2000-2008 2009 2000-2008 Linze County 2009 2009 2009 Jinta County 2004-2009 2004-2009 2004-2009 Sunzhou District 2004-2009 2004-2009 2004-2009 Qilian County 2004-2009 2004-2009 2004-2009 Yumen City 2000-2005 2006-2008 2000-2005 2006-2008 2000-2005 2006-2008
ZHAO Jun
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