Population, urbanization, GDP and industrial structure forecast scenario data of the Urmuqi River Basin (Version 1.0) (2010-2050)

Taking 2005 as the base year, the future population scenario prediction adopted the Logistic model of population, and it not only can better describe the change pattern of population and biomass but is also widely applied in the economic field. The urbanization rate was predicted using the urbanization Logistic model. Based on the existing urbanization horizontal sequence value, the prediction model was established by acquiring the parameters in the parametric equation applying nonlinear regression. The urban population was calculated by multiplying the predicted population by the urbanization rate. The Logistic model was used to predict the future gross national product of each county (or city), and then, according to the economic development level of each county (or city) in each period (in terms of real GDP per capita),the corresponding industrial structure scenarios in each period were set, and each industry’s output value was predicted. The trend of changes in industrial structure in China and the research area lagged behind the growth of GDP, and, therefore, it was adjusted according to the need of the future industrial structure scenarios of the research area.

Data Citations Data citation guideline What's data citation?

Cite as:

Zhong, F., Yang, L. (2018). Population, urbanization, GDP and industrial structure forecast scenario data of the Urmuqi River Basin (Version 1.0) (2010-2050). A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles, DOI: 10.11888/Socio-econ.tpe.00000039.file. CSTR: 18406.11.Socio-econ.tpe.00000039.file. (Download the reference： RIS | Bibtex )

Related Literatures:

1. Zhang, J.T., He, X.J., Shangguan, D.H., Zhong, F.L., &Liu, S.Y. (2012). Impact of Intensive Glacier Ablation on Arid Regions of Northwest China and Its Countermeasure. Journal of Glaciology and Geocrylogy, 34(4), 848-854.( View Details | Bibtex)

2. Climate Change Response Division of National Development and Reform Commission,The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 (ACCA21). (2012). Impact assessment of Climate Change on China and Its Countermeasure: sea level rise and melting glaciers[M]. Beijing: Science Press.( View Details | Bibtex)

Using this data, the data citation is required to be referenced and the related literatures are suggested to be cited.

Support Program

CASEarth:Big Earth Data for Three Poles（grant No. XDA19070000） (No:XDA19000000)

Copyright & License

To respect the intellectual property rights, protect the rights of data authors, expand services of the data center, and evaluate the application potential of data, data users should clearly indicate the source of the data and the author of the data in the research results generated by using the data (including published papers, articles, data products, and unpublished research reports, data products and other results). For re-posting (second or multiple releases) data, the author must also indicate the source of the original data.

License： This work is licensed under an Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)