Probability distribution of permafrost along a transportation corridor in the northeastern Qinghai province of China

Probability distribution of permafrost along a transportation corridor in the northeastern Qinghai province of China

Cold Regions Science and Technology

The spatial distribution patterns of permafrost affect the stability of engineering facilities in high-cold regions. A transportation corridor, located in the northeastern Qinghai province of China, and passing through the Qilianshan high-mountain permafrost area is investigated. Two field investigations were carried out and a total of 220 boreholes were drilled to determine the distribution patterns of permafrost along the corridor. On the basis of the borehole data the effects of topo-climatic factors, derived from a 90 m-DEM data, on permafrost distribution were evaluated. Two models, a binary logistic regression model and a multi-criteria analysis model, were developed and validated based on a sub-group of 67 boreholes data and all the 220 borehole measurements. A comparison of the results of the two models indicated that the prediction probabilities of permafrost presence from the multi-criteria analysis model agreed well with the field investigations. The multi-criteria analysis model was shown to be the more efficient one in modeling the permafrost distribution in the corridor area. The overall permafrost distribution patterns were analyzed using the ARCGIS software.