Data content: Foreign Economic and trade_ Total import and export of goods (1952-2019) and foreign economic and trade_ Total import and export by trade (1981-2019) Data sources and processing methods: the original data of China's foreign trade and investment from 2015 to 2019 (including the third pole) were obtained from the official website of the world bank and sina.com, and the foreign trade and investment data set of China (including the third pole) from 1952 to 2019 was obtained through data sorting, screening and cleaning. The data start time is from 1952 to 2019 in Microsoft Excel (xlsx) format.
FU Wenxue
Data content: national economy_ Industrial value added (monthly) (2010-2019) Data source and processing method: the original industrial economic data of China (including the third pole) from the official website of the world bank and sina.com from 2010 to 2019 are obtained through data sorting, screening and cleaning. The data start time is from 2010 to 2019 in Microsoft Excel (xlsx) format.
FU Wenxue
Data content: price index_ Consumer price index (CPI) (2010-2019) Data source and processing method: obtain the economic original data of the third pole (China region) price index from the official website of the world bank and sina.com from 2015 to 2019, and obtain the economic data set of the third pole (China region) price index from 2010 to 2019 through data sorting, screening and cleaning. The data start time is from 2010 to 2019 in Microsoft Excel (xlsx) format.
FU Wenxue
It is summarized that the agricultural and socio-economic status of the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) in 2016. This data comes from the statistical yearbook of five Central Asian countries, including six elements: total population, cultivated land area, grain production area, GDP, proportion of agricultural GDP to total GDP, proportion of industrial GDP to total GDP, and forest area. Detailed statistics of the six socio-economic elements of the five Central Asian countries. It can be seen from the statistics that there are different emphases among the six elements of the five Central Asian countries. This data provides basic data for the project, facilitates the subsequent analysis of the ecological and social situation in Central Asia, and provides data support for the project data analysis.
LIU Tie
The data set is the global vegetation productivity data, including Gross Primary Productivity(GPP) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). It was obtained by the CNRM-CM6-1 mode simulation of CMIP6 under the Historical scenario. The time range of the data covers from 1850 to 2014, the time resolution is a month, and the spatial resolution is about 1.406°×1.389°. For the simulated data details, please go to the following link: http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/cmip6/spip.php?article11.
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)
The data set includes: population and GDP data of the arctic (1990-2015) and county-level population and GDP data of the third pole region (gansu, qinghai and Tibet) (1970-2016). Socio-economic statistical attributes include: population (ten thousand), GDP (ten thousand yuan), total industrial and agricultural output (ten thousand yuan), total agricultural output (ten thousand yuan), and total industrial output (ten thousand yuan). The arctic population data are mainly derived from the world populationProspects: 2017 revision by the Department of economic and social affairs, which divides the total population by region and country. The data of the third pole mainly refer to the statistical yearbook of gansu province, qinghai province and Tibet autonomous region.County records of gansu, qinghai and Tibet autonomous regions.
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, National Bureau of Statistics, Qinghai Provincial Bureau of Statistics
The dataset is a 30-minute eddy covariance flux observation data from nine flux stations in the Three Poles, including the data of ecosystem Net Carbon Exchange (NEE), Gross Primary Productivity(GPP), and Ecosystem Respiration (ER) . The time coverage of the data is from 2000 to 2016. The main steps of data pre-processing include outlier removal (±3σ), coordinate axis rotation(three-dimensional wind rotation), Webb-Pearman-Leuning correction, outlier elimination, carbon flux interpolation and decomposition. And missing data is interpolated by the nonlinear empirical formula between CO2 flux value(Fc) and environmental factors.
ZHANG Yangjian, NIU Ben
This data contains part of the economic indicators of Qinghai province and Tibet Autonomous Region. The data statistics based on provinces can be used to construct the evaluation index system for the coupling coordination relationship between urbanization and eco-environment on the Tibetan Plateau. The data of the Tibet Autonomous Region contains seven indicators, including the gross domestic product (GDP), the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, industry, construction industry, and the per capita GDP, the time span is 1951-2016. The time span of the data set of Qinghai province is from 1952 to 2015, besides the above seven indicators, there is one more indicator of Qinghai province called agriculture forwdtry animal husbandry and fishery. All data are derived from the statistical yearbook, which is calculated at current prices. The gross domestic product (GDP) for 2005-2008 has been revised based on data from the second economic census.
DU Yunyan
This data set contains information on natural disasters in Qinghai over nearly 50 years, including the times, places and the consequences of natural disasters such as droughts, floods, hail, continuous rain, snow disasters, cold waves and strong temperature drops, low temperature freezing injuries, gales and sandstorms, pest plagues, rats, and geological disasters. Qinghai Province is located in the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau and has a total area of 720,000 square kilometers. Numerous rivers, glaciers and lakes lie in the province. Because two mother rivers of the Chinese nation, the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, and the famous international river—the Lancang River—originated here, it is known as the "Chinese Water Tower"; there are 335,000 square meters of available grasslands in the province, and the natural pasture area ranks fourth in the country after those of Inner Mongolia, Tibet and Xinjiang. There are various types of grasslands, abundant grassland resources, and 113 families, 564 genera and 2100 species of vascular plants, which grow and develop under the unique climatic condition of the Tibetan Plateau and strongly represent the characteristics of the plateau ecological environment. As the main part of the Tibetan Plateau, Qinghai Province is one of the centers of the formation and evolution of biological species in China. It is also a sensitive area and fragile zone for the study of climate and ecological environment in the international field of sciences and technology. The terrain and land-forms in Qinghai are complex, with interlaced mountains, valleys and basins, widely distributed snow and glaciers, the Gobi and other deserts and grassland. Complex terrain conditions, high altitudes and harsh climatic conditions make Qinghai a province with frequent meteorological disasters. The main meteorological disasters include droughts, floods, hail, continuous rain, snow disasters, cold waves and strong temperature drops, low temperature freezing injuries, gales and sandstorms. The data are extracted from the Qinghai Volume of Chinese Meteorological Disaster Dictionary, with manual entry, summarizing and proofreading.
Qinghai Provincial Bureau of Statistics
This data set contains statistical tables on the community situation of each county in Three-River-Source National Park. The specific contents include: Table 1 includes: number of administrative villages, number of natural villages, number of households, population, number of rural labor force, total value of primary and secondary industries, net income per capita, and number of livestock. Table 2 includes: the ethnic composition of the population (population of each ethnic group), education-related statistics (number of primary and secondary schools and number of students), health-related statistics (number of hospitals, health rooms and medical personnel), and statistics on the education level of the population (number of people with different education levels); Table 3 includes: the grassland (total grassland area, usable grassland area, moderately degraded area and grassland vegetation coverage), woodland (total area, arbor forest area, shrub forest area and sparse forest area), water area (total area, river area, lake area, glacier area, snowy mountain area and wetland area). A total of four counties were designed: Maduo, Qumalai, Zaduo and Zhiduo. This data comes from statistics of government departments.
National Bureau of Statistics
The distribution data of Central Asia desert oil and gas fields are in the form of vector data in ". SHP". Including the distribution of oil and gas fields and major urban settlements in the five Central Asian countries. The data is extracted and cut from modis-mcd12q product. The spatial resolution of the product is 500 m, and the time resolution is 1 year. IGBP global vegetation classification scheme is adopted as the classification standard. The scheme is divided into 17 land cover types, among which the urban data uses the construction and urban land in the scheme. The data can provide data support for the assessment and prevention of sandstorm disasters in Central Asia desert oil and gas fields and green town.
GAO Xin
By applying Supply-demand Balance Analysis, the water resource supply and demand of the whole river basin and each county or district were calculated, based on which the vulnerability of the water resources system of the basin was evaluated. The IPAT equation was used to set a future water resource demand scenario, setting variables such as future population growth rate, economic growth rate, and unit GDP water consumption to establish the scenario. By taking 2005 as the base year and using assorted forecasting data of population size and economic scale, the future water demand scenarios of various counties and cities from 2010 to 2050 were forecast. By applying the basic structure of the HBV conceptual hydrological model of the Swedish Hydrometeorological Institute, a model of the variation tendency of the basin under climate change was designed. The glacial melting scenario was used as the model input to construct the runoff scenario under climate change. According to the national regulations of the water resources allocation of the basin, a water distribution plan was set up to calculate the water supply comprehensively. Considering of the supply and demand situation, the water resource system vulnerability was evaluated by the water shortage rate. By calculating the (grain production) land pressure index of the major counties and cities in the basin, the balance of supply and demand of land resources under the climate change, glacial melt and population growth scenarios was analyzed, and the vulnerability of the agricultural system was evaluated. The Miami formula and HANPP model were used to calculate the human appropriation of net primary biomass and primary biomass in the major counties and cities for the future, and the vulnerability of ecosystems from the perspective of supply and demand balance was assessed.
YANG Linsheng, ZHONG Fanglei
This data set contains the results of the calculation of Net Primary Productivity (NPP) on the Tibetan Plateau based on ecological models and remote sensing data from 1982 to 2006. Ecosystem NPP of the Tibetan Plateau was generated based on the remote sensing Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data and the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model(1982-2006), the soil carbon content was generated based on the second soil census data, and the biomass carbon data were generated based on the High Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM) model. Forest ecosystem NPP of the Tibetan Plateau (1982-2006): npp_forest82.e00，npp_forest83.e00，npp_forest84.e00，npp_forest85.e00，npp_forest86.e00， npp_forest87.e00，npp_forest88.e00，npp_forest89.e00，npp_forest90.e00，npp_forest91.e00， npp_forest92.e00，npp_forest93.e00，npp_forest94.e00，npp_forest95.e00，npp_forest96.e00， npp_forest97.e00，npp_forest98.e00，npp_forest99.e00，npp_forest00.e00，npp_forest01.e00， npp_forest02.e00，npp_forest03.e00，npp_forest04.e00，npp_forest05.e00，npp_forest06.e00 Grassland ecosystem NPP of the Tibetan Plateau(1982-2006)： npp_grass82.e00，npp_grass83.e00，npp_grass84.e00，npp_grass85.e00，npp_grass86.e00， npp_grass87.e00，npp_grass88.e00，npp_grass89.e00，npp_grass90.e00，npp_grass91.e00， npp_grass92.e00，npp_grass93.e00，npp_grass94.e00，npp_grass95.e00，npp_grass96.e00， npp_grass97.e00，npp_grass98.e00，npp_grass99.e00，npp_grass00.e00，npp_grass01.e00，npp_grass02.e00，npp_grass03.e00，npp_grass04.e00，npp_grass05.e00，npp_grass06.e00. Biomass carbon and soil carbon of the Tibetan Plateau： Biomass.e00，Socd.e00. The soil carbon content data （Socd） are generated based on data of the second soil census of China and Soil Map of China (1:1,000,000) by soil subclass interpolation. The NPP data are generated from the CASA model and AVHRR data simulation: Potter CS, Randerson JT, Field CB et al. Terrestrial ecosystem production: a process model based on global satellite and surface data. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 1993, 7: 811–841. The biomass carbon data are generated via HRBM model simulation： McGuire AD, Sitch S, et al. Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 2001, 15 (1), 183-206. The raw data are mainly remote sensing data and field observation data with high accuracy; the verification and adjustment of the measured data in the field during the production were undertaken to maintain the error of the simulation results and the field measured data within the acceptable range as much as possible; the verification results of the NPP data and the field measured data show that the error remains within 15%. The spatial resolution is 0.05°×0.05° (longitude×latitude).
ZHOU Caiping
This data set contains sequence data of the number variation of livestock in the major cities and counties of the Tibetan Plateau from 1970 to 2006. It is used to study the social and economic changes of the Tibetan Plateau. The table has ten fields. Field 1: Year Interpretation: Year of the data Field 2: Province Interpretation: The province from which the data were obtained Field 3: City/Prefecture Interpretation: The city or prefecture from which the data were obtained Field 4: County Interpretation: The name of the county Field 5: Large livestock (10,000) Interpretation: The number of large livestock such as cattle, horses, mules, donkeys, and camels. Field 6: Cattle herd (10,000) Interpretation: Number of cattle Field 7: Equine animals(10,000) Interpretation: The number of equine animals such as horses, mules and donkeys. Field 8: Horses (10,000) Interpretation: The number of horses Field 9: Sheep (10,000) Interpretation: The number of sheep Field 10: Data Sources Interpretation: Source of Data The data come from the statistical yearbook and county annals. Some are listed as follows. [1] Gansu Yearbook Editorial Committee. Gansu Yearbook [J]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1984, 1988-2009 [2] Statistical Bureau of Yunnan Province. Yunnan Statistical Yearbook [J]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1988-2009 [3] Statistical Bureau of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Survey Team. Sichuan Statistical Yearbook [J]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1987-1991, 1996-2009 [4] Statistical Bureau of Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region . Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook [J]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1989-1996, 1998-2009 [5] Statistical Bureau of Tibetan Autonomous Region. Tibet Statistical Yearbook [J]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1986-2009 [6] Statistical Bureau of Qinghai Province. Qinghai Statistical Yearbook [J]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1986-1994, 1996-2008. [7] County Annals Editorial Committee of Huzhu Tu Autonomous County. County Annals of Huzhu Tu Autonomous County [J]. Qinghai: Qinghai People's Publishing House, 1993 [8] Haiyan County Annals Editorial Committee. Haiyan County Annals[J]. Gansu: Gansu Cultural Publishing House, 1994 [9] Menyuan County Annals Editorial Committee. Menyuan County Annals[J]. Gansu: Gansu People's Publishing House, 1993 [10] Guinan County Annals Editorial Committee. Guinan County Annals [J]. Shanxi: Shanxi People's Publishing House, 1996 [11] Guide County Annals Editorial Committee. Guide County Annals[J]. Shanxi: Shanxi People's Publishing House, 1995 [12] Jianzha County Annals Editorial Committee. Jianzha County Annals [J]. Gansu: Gansu People's Publishing House, 2003 [13] Dari County Annals Editorial Committee. Dari County Annals [J]. Shanxi: Shanxi People's Publishing House, 1993 [14] Golmud City Annals Editorial Committee. Golmud City Annals [J]. Beijing: Fangzhi Publishing House, 2005 [15] Delingha City Annals Editorial Committee. Delingha City Annals [J]. Beijing: Fangzhi Publishing House, 2004 [16] Tianjun County Annals Editorial Committee. Tianjun County Annals [J]. Gansu: Gansu Cultural Publishing House, 1995 [17] Naidong County Annals Editorial Committee. Naidong County Annals [J]. Beijing: China Tibetology Press, 2006 [18] Gulang County Annals Editorial Committee. Gulang County Annals [J]. Gansu: Gansu People's Publishing House, 1996 [19] County Annals Editorial Committee of Akesai Kazak Autonomous County. County Annals of Akesai Kazakh Autonomous County [J]. Gansu: Gansu People's Publishing House, 1993 [20] Minxian County Annals Editorial Committee. Minxian County Annals [J]. Gansu: Gansu People's Publishing House, 1995 [21] Dangchang County Annals Editorial Committee. Dangchang County Annals [J]. Gansu: Gansu Cultural Publishing House, 1995 [22] Dangchang County Annals Editorial Committee. Dangchang County Annals(Sequel) (1985-2005) [J]. Gansu: Gansu Cultural Publishing House, 2006 [23] Wenxian County Annals Editorial Committee. Wenxian County Annals[J]. Gansu: Gansu Cultural Publishing House, 1997 [24] Kangle County Annals Editorial Committee. Kangle County Annals [J]. Shanghai: Sanlian Bookstore. 1995 [25] County Annals Editorial Committee of Jishishan (Baoan, Dongxiang, Sala) Autonomous County. County Annals of Jishishan (Baoan, Dongxiang, Sala) Autonomous County[J], Gansu: Gansu Cultural Publishing House, 1998 [26] Luqu County Annals Editorial Committee. Luqu County Annals [J]. Gansu: Gansu People's Publishing House, 2006 [27] Zhouqu County Annals Editorial Committee. Zhouqu County Annals [J]. Shanghai: Sanlian Bookstore. 1996 [28] Xiahe County Annals Editorial Committee. Xiahe County Annals [J]. Gansu: Gansu Cultural Publishing House, 1999 [29] Zhuoni County Annals Editorial Committee. Zhuoni County Annals [J]. Gansu: Gansu Nationality Publishing House, 1994 [30] Diebu County Annals Editorial Committee. Diebu County Annals [J]. Gansu: Lanzhou University Press, 1998 [31] Pengxian County Annals Editorial Committee. Pengxian County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan People's Publishing House, 1989 [32] Guanxian County Annals Editorial Committee. Guanxian County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan People's Publishing House, 1991 [33] Wenjiang County Annals Editorial Committee. Wenjiang County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan People's Publishing House, 1990 [34] Shifang County Annals Editorial Committee. Shifang County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan University Press, 1988 [35] Tianquan County Annals Editorial Committee. Tianquan County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan Science and Technology Press, 1997 [36] Shimian County Annals Editorial Committee. Shimian County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan Cishu Publishing House, 1999 [37] Lushan County Annals Editorial Committee. Lushan County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Fangzhi Publishing House, 2000 [38] Hongyuan County Annals Editorial Committee. Hongyuan County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan People's Publishing House, 1996 [39] Wenchuan County Annals Editorial Committee. Wenchuan County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Bayu Shushe, 2007 [40] Derong County Annals Editorial Committee. Derong County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan University, 2000 [41] Baiyu County Annals Editorial Committee. Baiyu County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan University Press, 1996 [42] Batang County Annals Editorial Committee. Batang County Annals [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan Nationality Publishing House, 1993 [43] Jiulong County Annals Editorial Committee. Jiulong County Annals(Sequel) (1986-2000) [J]. Sichuan: Sichuan Science and Technology Press, 2007 [44] County Annals Editorial Committee of Derung-Nu Autonomous County Gongshan. County Annals of Derung-Nu Autonomous County Gongshan [J]. Beijing: Nationality Publishing House, 2006 [45] Lushui County Annals Editorial Committee. Lushui County Annals [J]. Yunnan: Yunnan People's Publishing House, 1995 [46] Deqin County Annals Editorial Committee. Deqin County Annals [J]. Yunnan: Yunnan Nationality Publishing House, 1997 [47] Yutian County Annals Editorial Committee. Yutian County Annals [J]. Xinjiang: Xinjiang People's Publishing House, 2006 [48] Cele County Annals Editorial Committee. Cele County Annals [J]. Xinjiang: Xinjiang People's Publishing House, 2005 [49] Hetian County Annals Editorial Committee. Hetian County Annals [J]. Xinjiang: Xinjiang People's Publishing House, 2006 [50] Qiemo County Local Chronicles Editorial Committee. Qiemo County Annals [J]. Xinjiang: Xinjiang People's Publishing House, 1996 [51] Shache County Annals Editorial Committee. Shache County Annals [J]. Xinjiang: Xinjiang People's Publishing House, 1996 [52] Yecheng County Annals Editorial Committee. Yecheng County Annals [J]. Xinjiang: Xinjiang People's Publishing House, 1999 [53] Akto County Local Chronicles Editorial Committee. Akto County Annals [J]. Xinjiang: Xinjiang People's Publishing House, 1996 [54] Wuqia County Local Chronicles Editorial Committee. Wuqia County Annals [J]. Xinjiang: Xinjiang People's Publishing House, 1995
National Bureau of Statics of China
The data set recorded the total investment in fixed assets in Qinghai from 1980 to 2016. The data were derived from the Qinghai Society and Economics Statistical Yearbook and the Qinghai Statistical Yearbook. The accuracy of the data is consistent with that of the statistical yearbook. The table contains 11 fields. Field 1: Year Interpretation: Year of the data Field 2: Total Interpretation: Total investment in fixed assets Unit: 100,000,000 yuan Field 3: State-owned economy Interpretation: State-owned economic investment in fixed assets Unit: 100,000,000 yuan Field 4: Collective Economy Interpretation: Collective economic investment in fixed assets Unit: 100,000,000 yuan Field 5: Individual Economy Interpretation: Individual economic investment in fixed assets Unit: 100,000,000 yuan Field 6: Other types of economy Interpretation: Other economic investment in fixed assets Unit: 100,000,000 yuan Field 7: Total Growth Interpretation: Total growth of investment in fixed assets Unit: % Field 8: State-owned growth Interpretation: Growth of state-owned economic investment in fixed assets Unit: % Field 9: Collective growth Interpretation: Growth of collective economic investment in fixed assets Unit: % Field 10: Individual Growth Interpretation: Growth of individual economic investment in fixed assets Unit: % Field 11: Other growth Interpretation: Growth of other economic investment in fixed assets Unit: %
Qinghai Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Qinghai Provincial Bureau of Statistics
Taking 2005 as the base year, the future population scenario was predicted by adopting the Logistic model of population. It not only can better describe the change pattern of population and biomass but is also widely applied in the economic field. The urbanization rate was predicted by using the urbanization Logistic model. Based on the existing urbanization horizontal sequence value, the prediction model was established by acquiring the parameters in the parametric equation by nonlinear regression. The urban population was calculated by multiplying the predicted population by the urbanization rate. The data adopted the non-agricultural population. The Logistic model was used to predict the future gross national product of each county (or city), and then, according to the economic development level of each county (or city) in each period (in terms of GDP per capita),the corresponding industrial structure scenarios in each period were set, and the output value of each industry was predicted. The trend of changes in industrial structure in China and the research area lagged behind the growth of GDP and was therefore adjusted according to the need of the future industrial structure scenarios of the research area.
ZHONG Fanglei
Taking 2005 as the base year, the future population scenario prediction adopted the Logistic model of population; not only is it better able to describe the change pattern of population and biomass, but it is also widely applied in the economic field. The urbanization rate was predicted using the urbanization Logistic model. Based on the existing urbanization horizontal sequence value, the prediction model was established by acquiring the parameters in the parametric equation applying nonlinear regression. The urban population was calculated by multiplying the predicted population by the urbanization rate. The Logistic model was used to predict the future gross national product of each county (or city), and then according to the economic development level of each county (or city) in each period (in terms of real GDP per capita), the corresponding industrial structure scenarios in each period were set, and the output value of each industry was predicted. The trend of changing industrial structure in China and the research area lagged behind the growth of GDP and was therefore adjusted according to the need of the future industrial structure scenarios of the research area.
YANG Linsheng, ZHONG Fanglei
By applying Supply-demand Balance Analysis, the water resource supply and demand of the whole river basin and each county or district were calculated, on which basis the vulnerability of the water resources system of the basin was evaluated. The IPAT equation was used to set a future water resource demand scenario, setting variables such as future population growth rate, economic growth rate, and unit GDP water consumption to establish the scenario. By taking 2005 as the base year and using assorted forecasting data of population size and economic scale, the future water demand scenarios of various counties and cities from 2010 to 2050 were predicted. By applying the basic structure of the HBV conceptual hydrological model of the Swedish Hydrometeorological Institute, a model of the variation tendency of the basin under climate change was designed. The glacial melting scenario was used as the model input to construct the runoff scenario under climate change. According to the national regulations for the water resources allocation of the basin, a water distribution plan was set up to calculate the water supply comprehensively. Considering the supply and demand situation, the water resource system vulnerability was evaluated by the water shortage rate. By calculating the (grain production) land pressure index of the major counties and cities in the basin, the balance of supply and demand of land resources under the climate change, glacial melt and population growth scenarios was analyzed, and the vulnerability of the agricultural system was evaluated. The Miami formula and HANPP model were used to calculate the human appropriation of net primary biomass and primary biomass in the major counties and cities for the future, and the vulnerability of ecosystems from the perspective of supply and demand balance was assessed.
YANG Linsheng, ZHONG Fanglei
Taking 2000 as the base year, the future population scenario prediction adopted the Logistic model of population, and it not only can better describe the change pattern of population and biomass but also is widely applied in the economic field. The urbanization rate was predicted using the urbanization Logistic model. Based on the existing urbanization horizontal sequence value, the prediction model was established by acquiring the parameters in the parametric equation applying nonlinear regression. The urban population was calculated by multiplying the predicted population by the urbanization rate. The Logistic model was used to predict the future gross national product of each county (or city), and then, according to the economic development level of each county (or city) in each period (in terms of real GDP per capita), the corresponding industrial structure scenarios in each period were set, and the output value of each industry was predicted. The trend of industrial structure changing in China and the research area lagged behind the growth of GDP, so it was adjusted according to the need of the future industrial structure scenarios of the research area.
ZHONG Fanglei
By applying supply-demand balance analysis, the water resource supply and demand of the whole river basin and each county or district were calculated, and the results were used to assess the vulnerability of the water resources system in the basin. The IPAT equation was used to establish a future water resource demand scenario, which involved setting various variables, such as the future population growth rate, economic growth rate, and water consumption per unit GDP. By taking 2005 as the base year and using assorted forecasting data of population size and economic scale, the future water demand scenarios of various counties and cities from 2010 to 2050 were predicted. By applying the basic structure of the HBV conceptual hydrological model of the Swedish Hydro-meteorological Institute, a model of the variation trends of the basin under a changing climate was designed. The glacial melting scenario was used as the model input to construct the runoff scenario in response to climate change. According to the national regulations of the water resource allocation in the basin, a water distribution plan was set up to calculate the water supply comprehensively. Considering the supply and demand situation, the water resource system vulnerability was evaluated by the water shortage rate. By calculating the grain production-related land pressure index of the major counties and cities in the basin, the balance of supply and demand of land resources in scenarios of climate change, glacial melting and population growth was analysed, and the vulnerability of the agricultural system was evaluated. The Miami formula and HANPP model were used to calculate the human appropriation of net primary biomass and primary biomass in the major counties and cities in the future, and the vulnerability of ecosystems from the perspective of supply and demand balance was assessed.
YANG Linsheng, ZHONG Fanglei
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