平均气温--数据产品-A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles

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Spatial distribution of global mean annual temperature simulated by multi-model ensemble under different climate scenarios (2006-2100)

According to the data of three future scenarios of CMIP5 (RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5), the spatial variation characteristics and temporal variation trend of the global mean annual air temperature from 2006 to 2100 are analyzed. Under rcp2.6 scenario, the mean annual air temperature shows an increasing trend, with the growth rate ranging from 0.0 ° c/decade to 0.2 ° c/decade (P<0.05), the growth in high latitude regions is faster, ranging from 0.1 ° c/decade to 0.2 ° C / decade. Based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of the mean annual air temperature in the northern hemisphere in the 21st century, under different scenarios, the mean annual air temperature shows a warming trend, and the high latitudes show a more sensitive and rapid growth.

2022-10-23

Downscaling simulations of future temperature based on CMIP5 outputs in Heihe river basin (2011-2100)

Based on the downscaling temperature result data in the historical period of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5), the future multi-year average temperature in the three periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 was predicted. Under the scenarios of rcp2.6, rcp4.5, and rcp8.5, the method of combining ordinary least squares regression with HASM (High Accuracy Surface Modeling Method) was used to downscaling simulate and predict, and the 1km downscaling results of the multi-year average temperature in the three scenarios of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 were obtained.

2020-03-02