Population, urbanization, GDP and industrial structure predictions for the Aksu River Basin (Version 1.0) (2010-2050)- A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles

Taking 2005 as the base year, the future population scenario was predicted by adopting the logistic model of population. This model not only effectively describes the pattern of changes in population and biomass but is also widely applied in the field of economics. The urbanization rate was predicted using the urbanization logistic model. Based on the observed horizontal pattern of urbanization, a predictive model was established by determining the parameters in the parametric equation by applying nonlinear regression. The urban population was calculated by multiplying the predicted population by the urbanization rate.

The data represent the non-agricultural population. The logistic model was used to predict the future gross domestic product of each county (or city), and then the economic development level of each county (or city) in each period (in terms of GDP per capita). The corresponding industrial structure scenarios in each period were set, and the output value of each industry was predicted.

The trend of industrial structure changes in China and the research area lagged behind the growth in GDP, so the changes were adjusted according to the need for future industrial structure scenarios in the research area.

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Yang, L., Zhong, F. (2018). Population, urbanization, GDP and industrial structure predictions for the Aksu River Basin (Version 1.0) (2010-2050). A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles, DOI: 10.11888/Socio-econ.tpe.0000007.file. CSTR: 18406.11.Socio-econ.tpe.0000007.file. (Download the reference： RIS | Bibtex )

Related Literatures:

1. Zhang, J.T., He, X.J., Shangguan, D.H., Zhong, F.L., &Liu, S.Y. (2012). Impact of Intensive Glacier Ablation on Arid Regions of Northwest China and Its Countermeasure. Journal of Glaciology and Geocrylogy, 34(4), 848-854.( View Details | Bibtex)

2. Climate Change Response Division of National Development and Reform Commission,The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 (ACCA21). (2012). Impact assessment of Climate Change on China and Its Countermeasure: sea level rise and melting glaciers[M]. Beijing: Science Press.( View Details | Bibtex)

Using this data, the data citation is required to be referenced and the related literatures are suggested to be cited.

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CASEarth:Big Earth Data for Three Poles（grant No. XDA19070000） (No:XDA19000000)

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